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Lopi mark this message contains personal perspective
originally written by Lopi
(1)原文見於美國 USA Today新聞網站,是可信的報導。參考[1]
(2)軟體模擬程式用於預測疫情,地方政府通常會採用幾個不同的軟體程式,比較其結果,來決定防疫政策,不會只看單一程式。
(3)美國1月9日的當日染疫人數近67萬,此模擬預測高峰會達到每日280萬,有點偏高。1月8日累積總染疫數是六千萬,模擬程式預測在3月底將增加一億四千萬,達到兩億,佔美國人口總數的60%,也是偏高。
(4)以當前美國各地政府的採取的防疫強度,顯然不是基於這個模擬程式的預測。參考[2]

Opinion Sources

[1]USA Today: Omicron may bring 140M new COVID infections to US in the next two months
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/8967421002
[2]紐約時報 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

'Enormous spread of omicron' may bring 140M new COVID infections to US in the next two months, model predicts

Outside the US, IHME models show the world may see approximately 3 billion new infections in the next two months, with a peak of 35 million per day.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/8967421002

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